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Leaderboard

1. Nico Valsesia
2. Štěpán Stránský
3. Jay Petervary
4. Stefano Romualdi
5. Paolo Botti
6. Sylvain Blairon
7. Pavel Macháček
8. Maximiliano Oliva
9. Peter Sandholt
10. Marco Sartori

Fact file

Location:
Italy
Length:
901km
Riders:
88
Winner:
Nico Valsesia, ITA
Terrain:
Off-road

bernd paul stopped

Is Bernd Paul's race over? His line on the race flow graph comes to a premature end, and his dot has been inactive for almost 2 hours. Has the German scratched after his nocturnal errors?
raceflow graph

Analyzing Race Flow

'Race Flow' is basically the monitoring of rider progress over a certain period of time. On the graph, the X-axis represents time, and the Y-axis distance. From these two measurements, we can see each rider's progress - represented by the lines on the graph - in relation to the progress of others. And once that information is digested, we can begin to predict what might happen next in the race.

  • Flat line = Stationary / asleep
  • Steep line = Fast pace
  • Lines crossing = Riders passing eachother
  • Smooth line = Steady pace
  • Erratic line = Lack of rhythm / probable fatigue

From this race flow graph, we can see that the top ten remained fairly evenly matched for the first five hours of racing, at which point the pace of a few began to drop off. "I had to back off after the first 5 hours as the pace was absolutly crazy," said 5th place Jay Petervary in an Instagram update this morning.

Then, by and large, they all continued at differing paces for the next 20 hours, at which point Stepan Stransky (red line), and Thomas Taut (dark green line) stopped to sleep. A few hours later, Stefano Romualdi (gold), Jay Petervary (purple), and Bernd Paul (yellow) stopped.

When Paul woke up, his line became very erratic, which we now know coincided with the time he went off-course. Perhaps he knew he had gone wrong?

Meanwhile, those who hadn't slept started to lose pace rapidly, and there is little chance of these riders making a comeback now. They've misjudged their effort, and will now be losing time either through sleep, or a lack of riding pace, until the end of the race.

After his sleep, Stepan Stransky has upped the pace, and with almost ten hours rest in his legs, Thomas Taut will almost definitely finish strong. The only question is, with barely more than a few hours spent at rest, will Nico Valsesia be able to hang on for the 250km left until the finish?

On the tracker map to the left, just click the third tab along, "Race Flow" to play with the graph yourself.

Nico Valsesia arrives at Ostello dei Concari, where he's currently been static for 45 minutes. 260km to go for the race leader.
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